Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Jan 30th Games

I guess Wednesday should just be renamed Big East Day, at least this season.

Villanova @ (21) Pitt (-7.5)
Both teams recently lost to Rutgers, but when Pitt did it, they did it as 18.5 point home favorites. Yeesh. Nova won this game when they were at home a couple of weeks ago, but only by a point. When Pitt played Rutgers on Saturday (1/26), they shot uncharacteristically low from the field and from the free-throw line. 'Nova's biggest advantage is shooting 3's - they average about 1 more per game than Pitt does. But I think Pitt's defense and rebounding are better and will help them win tonight.

Pick: Pitt

(18)Vanderbilt @ (22) Ole Miss (-6)
Vandy just got walloped by Florida, which makes for a third consecutive road loss (Kentucky on 1/12 and Tennessee on 1/17). They were favored in all three games. So why take a chance on the Commodores on the road tonight against a team that, in theory, is better than any of the three they've already lost to?

Pick: Ole Miss

(2) Kansas (-7) @ (24) Kansas State
Wow. The #2 in the country goes up against the best freshman and maybe even the second best freshman. I'm not sure why, but I've always kind of had a thing for Kansas, going back to when Roy Williams was there. And this year they look awesome. They've covered three double-digit spreads in their last 5 games. I know that doesn't mean much in tonight's game, but I think it says something about their ability to score and defend. They score more, give up less, shoot better, and create more steals than Kansas St. Kansas State, on the other hand, outrebounds Kansas by 5. They also have Michael "Too Good Already" Beasley, who predicted a season sweep of Kansas in the preseason. I don't see it happening.

Pick: Kansas

Results
Pitt - 69, Villanova - 57 (Win)
Mississippi - 74, Vanderbilt - 58 (Win)
Kansas St - 84, Kansas - 75 (Lose; I guess Beasley was right. Jerk.)

Jan 30 record: 2-1
Overall: 16-11

I also wanted to record that (23) Texas A&M beat (10) Texas at College Station by a score of 80-63. That's the same Texas A&M team that got walloped by Kansas St and lost to unranked Baylor, albeit in five overtimes. (Note: keep eyes on Baylor - they're 16-3 and currently in 3rd place in the Big 12). This Texas team is strange, isn't it? They beat UCLA on the road, lost to Wisconsin at home, and lost to Michigan State and Missouri (!!) on the road. Now they lose at A&M. I hope Baylor beats the crap out of them on Saturday.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Jan 24 Games

Been a long, long time now between picks. Just crazy busy at work. But tonight we've got a good test: (19) Dayton at (22) Xavier.

Pick: Dayton (+11)
Pick: Over (139)

(6) Washington State (+1.5) @ Arizona
Pick: WSU
Pick: Over (125)

No time to explain the picks, unfortunately.

Results
This is a great lesson in two areas:
1. My idiocy
2. Why picks made in the span of 5 minutes tend to not work out so well. I freely admit that I should have done more research before making gut calls. This is why Vegas bets end up being harder than they might need to. You're caught up in the excitement and the rush, and before you know it, you've put $50 on a 3-team parlay, the back end of which involves some dog sled race.

Xavier - 69; Dayton - 43 (112)
In all honesty, I initially had Xavier as my first pick along with the over. They're better than Dayton in all the categories: scoring, rebounds, defense, point differential. But when I drilled down, the differences in rebounds were marginal (really, how important is a tenth of a rebound?), and I had a hard time really placing value on some of the defensive numbers because I have no idea about any of the teams they've played. The point differential should have been a big enough indicator to believe the spread, as should the difference in free throw percentage. But I got swayed by Dayton's road defense and road rebounding numbers and went against my gut instinct. What can I say? I'm not very smart. So I lost both calls on this game.

Arizona - 76, Washington State - 64 (140)
Here was the 3 minute thought process on this one: I'm pretty sure that Washington State is a better team, and I would wager that when this game is played at WSU the outcome is different. If WSU is really approaching big time status, then they should be able to win in Tucson, which has traditionally been close to impossible in Pac-10 play. Honestly, that's all that went into it. At least I won the over.

Jan 24 record: 1-3
Overall: 14-10

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Jan 17 Games

Ok. I'm slacking. Well, more accurately, I'm not slacking in non-college basketball arenas, which in the grand scheme of life productivity is a good thing. But it's a bad thing for trying to get practice for the March trip. The result is having missed two days of good picks practice.

Tonight's slate has at least 3 appealing match-ups:

(13) Marquette @ Louisville
(14) Vanderbilt @ (7) Tennesse
(25) Arizona State @ Cal

No lines yet as of 9:20 AM EST, but I'll update that assuming I have time later this afternoon. Quick early impressions:

1. Lousville will be ranked soon enough. They're playing much better than earlier in the season, and they have guys coming back from both injury and "character" issues. I think they'll be a player in the tournament.

2. ASU is ranked??? I hate that. I have vivid memories of Eddie House scoring what seemed like 1,000 points against Cal a couple of years ago. But they beat (24)Arizona and Oregon in the last two weeks, and have a December win against (17) Xavier. But all of those games have been at home. In fact, they've only played 2 road games so far, and both of those have been losses (Illinois to start the season, and then Nebraska in December). This Cal/Stanfurd trip is their first road "test" of the season. I would like to think Cal could put up a fight here. But, as I've learned many times, thinking only gets you into trouble.

3. Vanderbilt just lost at Kentucky, which might have saved the entire state from entering clinical depression. Somewhere, Ashley Judd is clapping enthusiastically. The numbers seem to point to a Tennessee win, but the spread here will be very important.

Updated: Spreads and picks
ASU (+6) @ Cal: Wow. Cal is the favorite? Interesting. Seems like Vegas doesn't believe in ASU's road abilities either. So far, though, I've picked against Cal twice (@Oregon, UCLA) and won both times. Why ruin a good thing?
Pick: Arizona State

Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (-11.5): I think Vandy's loss to Kentucky was telling. I think they run into another buzzsaw playing a second consecutive road game, and this time to an even better team.
Pick: Tennessee

Marquette @ Louisville (-3): Again, the unranked team at home gets tabbed as the favorite. The difference between this game and the Cal game, though, is that based on talent, I think Louisville is a Top 15 team.
Pick: Louisville

Final Scores
Tennesse - 80, Vanderbilt - 60
Louisville - 71, Marquette - 51
ASU - 99, Cal - 90

1/17 record: 3-0
Overall: 13-7

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Jan 15th games

Today's Top 25 Games
Ohio State @ (11) Michigan State
NC State @ (23) Clemson
(17) Wisconsin @ Penn State
(24) Miami @ Boston College

Monday, January 14, 2008

Jan 14th Games

Obviously I missed all the games this weekend due to various events and such. Since all presumed picks would be biased due to hindsight, we'll have to chalk that up to missed opportunities. Dammit.

On to tonight's Big Monday slate of games, which unfortunately I won't have a chance to catch any of on television. Actually, tonight's "slate" consists of one huge game, and one stinker (Kansas vs. Oklahoma).

Biggest game of the night is #6 Georgetown (-2) at #16 Pitt.
I would really like to watch this game, but it's just not going to happen. So what's the breakdown?
Pitt scores more and gets at least 6 more offensive rebounds than Georgetown. Something about that doesn't make sense to me. Is Pitt really that good of an offensive rebounding team? And will that matter, given that Georgetown clears almost 25 defensive rebounds?

One of the reasons Georgetown doesn't get as many offensive boards is probably because they shoot so well: their FG% is almost 52%. Their FT shooting is abysmal (61%), but they make just under 2 more 3-point shots than Pitt.

Ok, so who has done what recently? Pitt is 3-2 in their last 5, but both losses were on the road and this game is a home game. One of those losses was at Villanova, where they were 2.5 point favorites.

Georgetown is 5-0, but with no real opponents. In their last game, they squeaked by UConn to win by 3, but they were 10 point favorites at home. They shot an uncharacteristically low FG% in that game...Last year, Pitt beat GTown at home by 5 as 6 point favorites, but I think last year's Pitt team was better.

So what does that mean? I go with the Hoyas, thinking that better defense, overall rebounding, and shooting percentage makes them a decent play as 2 point favorites, even on the road.

Since I can't find an O/U line on this game, I'll also take Kansas (-15.5) at home against Oklahoma in the other Big Monday game. Oklahoma just lost at home to the Kansas State Micheal Beasley's. Kansas, on the other hand, beat Boston College by 15 at BC on the 5th. Rock. Chalk. Jayhawk.

Results
Pitt - 69, Georgetown 60
Georgetown shot 7% worse than their average, and only hit 3 of 17 3-pointers. That's not good. Rebounding was virtually equal, although Pitt did get 4 more offensive rebounds. That really doesn't make sense to me, since Georgetown outsizes Pitt.

Pitt showed guts in this game - they're down two starters, but they got production from just about everywhere EXCEPT from their leading scorer (Sam Young). When I saw them in a game earlier against Duke, they looked bewildered, flustered, and very young. But I only saw the first half, and apparently they turned it around in the second half and came back to win. This is obviously a big win for them. Not only does it demonstrate that they're talented and formidable at home (13 game home win streak, which I conveniently ignored in my pick), but it reinforces the fact that I really wish Jamie Dixon coached Cal. He's awfully good. So I lost this one.

Kansas - 85, Oklahoma - 55
No surprises here. Okalahoma lost super freshamn Blake Griffin early in the game - he only leads them in scoring, rebounds and steals. Kansas is just too good, especially if Brandon Rush is firing on all cylinders, which he was doing.

Jan 14th record: 1-1
Overall: 10-7

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Jan 10 Games

Cal at Oregon (-5)
Pick: Oregon
Cal on the road...not a pretty idea.

Illinois at (#?) Wisconsin (-10.5)
O/U: 123

I'm taking the over here, although I'm tempted to also take Wisconsin and give the points. You know what? I' m doing it. 2-team parlay.
Pick: Wisconsin
Pick: Over
Pick: Parlay - Wisconsin AND the Over

#4 Washington State (+2) at USC
Obviously some major news story broke that I'm not seeing. Otherwise, how does the #4 team in the country go into this game as an underdog against USC, who just got swept by Cal and Stanfurd? I don't get it. Sure, it's a road game, but...
Pick: Washington State

Final Scores
Oregon - 79 , Cal - 70 (win)
Wisconsin - 70, Illinois 60 (lost the pick, won the over, lost the parlay)
Washington State - 73, USC - 58 (win)

Comment - the two Pac-10 games were on the obvious side. Cal played a little over their head against USC last week for their win - they got scoring from guys who just aren't going to do that the whole season. Going into Oregon is tough. No one was/is really sure what to make of Oregon this year, considering they have almost all of their guys back except for Aaron Brooks. But so far out of the gate, they look pretty good. They lost at ASU (who might be better than people thought?) but beat Arizona AT Arizona, which is tough.

USC appears to be incredibly overrated. No surprise there. Unfortunately, they have a lot of talent on the roster. They could be a team that turns it on in the second half of conference play and does well in the conference tournament. With Arizona faltering, there might be more room at the top of the conference than people originally thought.

As for Wisconsin...goddamit. I lost on the spread by a lousy 0.5 point. That hurts. The over seemed like an easier call given both teams scoring and points allowed average thus far. But man...one more free throw and I've got a perfect day.

Also, I should have picked the Lousiville/West Virginia game. I must have jumped over it on the schedule. Louisville is an interesting team. Very talented, very physical, very aggressive...but also very sporadic. Not sure about those guys.

No appealing games on the 11th. We'll see what the lines are for some games on the 12th, when, amongst other games, UNC plays NC State.

Jan 10th record: 3-2
Overall: 9-6

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Jan 9th Games

George Mason (-7) @ Delaware

#15 Mississippi @ #7 Tennessee (-9)

Two tough games to pick. George Mason should win, but...they haven't played anyone recently, and they're on the road. Delaware isn't very good, but George Mason is only 3-2 in their last five games, including a thrashing at the hands of Kent State. Ughh...I'll take George Mason, but cover my eyes while doing so.

The second game - tough, tough SEC matchup. Mississippi is undefeated and outrebounds and outshoots Tennessee. Tennessee is playing at home, scores more points and gives up fewer. A 9 point favorite? They beat Gonzaga by 10 on the road, but that was almost two weeks ago.
I'm taking Miss and the points, and again covering my eyes.

Final Scores
George Mason - 68, Delaware - 73 (OT)
Mississippi - 83, Tennessee - 85

Jan 9th record: 1-1
Overall: 6-4

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Jan 6 games

#1 North Carolina (-5) @ #19 Clemson
Pick: UNC
Final Score: UNC - 82, Clemson - 80 (OT)
I thought this was a pretty good wager. Unfortunately, I didn't see the game so I'm not sure what transpired other than the fact that Clemson had two put-back chances to win at the end of regulation and that UNC won on a 3-pointer with about 2 seconds left in overtime.

Penn St (+8) @ Illinois
This is a tough call. My initial reaction was to take Illinois at home...but they've lost two in a row, including one to Tennessee State. Penn State hasn't really beat anyone (unless you count Northwestern), but they're on a 5 game win streak. Penn State scores more and has a better scoring differential. Rebounding is virtually equal, and Penn State has a better 3-point shooting percentage. So with all that in the mix, I'm going to take Penn State and the points.

Final Score: Penn State - 68, Illinois - 64

Record (1/6): 1-1
Record (overall): 5-3

Jan 5 Games

I found a couple of games with lines that looked like good wins. I figure the practice can't hurt.

Kansas (-5) @ Boston College
Pick: Kansas
Final Score: Kansas- 85, BC - 60

Maryland (-1.5) @ Charlotte
Pick: Maryland
Final Score: Maryland - 76, Charlotte 72

Oregon (+7) @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona
Final Score: Oregon - 84, Arizona - 74

Georgetown (-16) @ Rutgers
Pick: Georgetown
Final Score: Georgetown - 58, Rutgers - 46

Louisville (-1.5) @ Kentucky
Pick: Louisville
Final Score: Louisville - 89, Kentucky - 75

UCLA (-4) @ Cal
Pick: UCLA
Final Score: UCLA - 70, Cal - 58

I would have gone 4-2.

Friday, January 4, 2008

Arizona vs Oregon State

Oregon State - 63
Arizona (home) - 76

The line was Arizona (-16.5), so they didn't cover the spread. O/U was 126.5, so the over was the winner. If I had bet on this game, I would have taken Arizona and/or the under and lost on both. At least I've still got that losing skill!

I watched some of the second half of this game. Oregon State was actually winning at half time 32-26, which is impressive given the fact that they just aren't that good. In the first half they did a much better job of slowing the game down, but couldn't hold on as Arizona scored 50 second half points. Chase Buddinger on Arizona is the real deal, which kills me to say.

I should also note that Arizona was playing without their leading scorer (Jerryd Bayless, freshman point guard), but got good replacement production from Nic Wise (7-9 shooting).

Another Item to Include

If possible, it would be neat to include the spread of the game and whether or not the team covered. Taking that a step further, we could try to do some game picks and see how well we did.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Basic Idea

So here's how I envision posts:
- Score
- Date of game
- Note home vs. away
- Write anything you noticed or thought relevant
- In the Labels, include the schools who were playing so we can reference things

The following would be an incredibly poor example:
UNC (home) 90 - Kent State (away) 61

UNC played very well. Kent State did not. Tyler Hansborough is a maniac.